From a close race between Joe Biden and incumbent President Donald Trump to an insurrection by Trump’s followers, the 2020 presidential election was nothing short of a turning point in American history. But the 2024 United States presidential election is shaping up to be just as crazy.
The 2024 presidential election will take place on November 5th, 2024, and although it is a year away, the race for the Oval Office has well begun as 17 people across three different parties have already suited up and put in their bid to become the next US President.
But who are these people, and what are their chances of becoming president? The Pioneer has categorized these candidates into six different groups to help identify potential presidential candidates.
The categories use polls to determine their popularity. They are: “The Likelys” (those who have a 50%+ chance of winning their party’s primary), “The Underdogs” (those who have <50% but >10% chance of winning their party’s primary), “The Stretches” (those who have <10% but >3% chance of winning their party’s primary), “The Longshots” (those who have <3% chance of winning their party’s primary), “The Third Partygoers” (those who are running as neither a Republican nor Democrat), and “The Dropouts” (those who have left the race).
Note: The order of the candidates inside the list is alphabetized by the first letter of their last name.
- “The Likelys”
The people on this list have a significant chance of winning their party’s primary and going to the presidential election. So, they are likely the ones that will be talked about most in the coming year.
President Joe Biden – Democrat: When 2020 rolled around, the Democrats needed someone to take on Donald Trump head-on, and former Vice-President Joe Biden stepped up to the plate, eventually defeating Trump and becoming the 46th president of the United States. Since Biden’s inauguration in 2021, he has become less and less popular over time, currently resting at a 39.6% approval rating (as of 10/9/23). But, despite this, his actions in the White House have led him to become the front-runner by a large margin for the Democratic primary.
Donald Trump – Republican: Since his victorious 2016 presidential campaign and his inauguration in 2017, Donald Trump has always found his way into the news. He was always in the limelight as the 45th president and became even more infamous for failing to accept his loss to Joe Biden in 2020. Since he left office in 2021, he has not stepped out of the spotlight because of numerous criminal indictments. But despite his newly found mugshot, he is still running for president in 2024 and has a significant lead on the Republic party with a 57% chance of winning the primary (as of 10/18/23). He also hopes to turn around the minds of the 55.1% of Americans who dislike him (as of 10/10/23).
- “The Underdogs”
These people may not be the favorites to win their party’s nomination. However, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them pull off an upset and represent their party in the presidential election.
Ron DeSantis – Republican: When Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced his bid for president, many started to discuss how DeSantis could take on Trump to represent the Republicans, and for a while, it looked like he could. Once polling began on January 8th, 2023 (five months before DeSantis even declared), DeSantis had a 34.6% chance of winning the Republican nomination, which was still less than Trump but much larger than any other candidate (the second highest in polling at the time was Pence with an 8.8% chance). Now, while it did seem DeSantis could give Trump a run for his money then, he has since fallen to a 12.2% chance of winning (as of 10/11/23). But, if DeSantis can put a run together, he could still challenge Trump.
- “The Stretches”
These people have put together campaigns that have allowed them to poll decently within their parties, and while it would be a long and hard road to win their primary, nothing is impossible in the world of politics.
Chris Christie – Republican: The former New Jersey Governor started his race slow polling with just around a 1% chance to win the Republican nomination. However, his “alternative Trump” candidate campaign has allowed him to rise to about a 3.2% chance of being the GOP candidate in the current polls (as of 10/11/23).
Nikki Haley – Republican: Only two women are in the race to become president, one Democrat and one Republican. The latter is Nikki Haley, who is polling at just about 6.2% and is currently trending up (as of 10/11/23).
Mike Pence – Republican: Trump’s former Vice-President decided to step into the ring to challenge Trump, and although he hasn’t polled Trump’s level of numbers, he has steadily remained at around 4% (as of 10/11/23).
Vivek Ramaswamy – Republican: Out of the 15 candidates remaining in the race, only four of them are not white, and by far, the most popular one is Vivek Ramaswamy. Vivek is also the youngest candidate in the race and has used his youthfulness to attract young Republican voters, allowing him to rise to 7.3% in the polls and become the third most likely Republican candidate (as of 10/11/23).
Marianne Williamson – Democrat: The other woman in the presidential election is self-help author Marianne Williamson. However, unlike Haley, she is running as a Democrat and is the only candidate besides Biden, Phillips, and Uygur to be running on the left. However, she is a bit far behind Biden as she has consistently polled below 10% in the Democratic primary.
- “The Longshots”
These people are polling low in their primaries and would need substantial gains to become challenging in the race. But these candidates do have a chance to put together some good campaigns.
Ryan Binkley – Republican: The businessman and pastor has attempted to make himself a “unifying” candidate between the Democrats and the Republicans. However, he has failed even to make it onto the polls (as of 10/24/23).
Doug Burgum – Republican: The Governor of North Dakota and former tech entrepreneur Doug Burgum has remained neutral when talking about Trump, and while it may take him some time to be a challenge to Trump, polling numbers have risen from 0% to 1% in five months (as of 10/11/23).
Larry Elder – Republican: Larry Elder is one of the four non-white candidates and a conservative radio talk show host who stepped into politics for the first time in 2021 and has struggled to put up numbers in the Republican primary and currently has no numbers in the polls (as of 10/11/23).
Asa Hutchinson – Republican: The former governor of Arkansas who served from 2015-2023 has failed to follow up on his success in Arkansas with a positive presidential run. Hutchinson is currently the lowest polling in the Republican primary (excluding Elder and Binkley, who aren’t included in the polls) with a 0.3% (as of 10/11/23).
Dean Phillips – Democrat: The late entry to the Democratic race is the member of the House of Representatives, Dean Phillips. Phillips entered the race in late October and has called out Biden saying that Biden’s low approval rating and age should cause the Democratic party to nominate someone else. He has yet to pull in any numbers at the poll. However, he might turn into a pain in the neck for Williamson and possibly even Biden especially because he plans to invest millions into taking down Biden.
Cenk Uygur – Democrat: The only person besides Williamson to challenge Biden for the Democratic nomination is a YouTube progressive talk show host, Cenk Uygur. The creator and the host of The Young Turks has stepped up to challenge Biden and the Biden Administration’s policies that Uygur says he disagrees with. However, despite his intentions, Uygur might not be able to run for President because of the fact that according to the Constitution, the President must be a “natural-born citizen” (born in the US), and Uygur was born in Turkey.
- “The Third Partygoers”
These people have decided to run as a third party (neither a Democrat nor a Republican). They may not be at the forefront of the news of who can be a candidate for the presidency but they can get a good amount of votes.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – Independent: The environmental activist, lawyer, anti-vaccine activist, and nephew of former President John F. Kennedy began his campaign as a Democrat and even looked like he could challenge Biden. But, he said that there was corruption “in the leadership of both parties” and that he wanted to change politics for the better. So, he left the Democrats to run as an Independent.
Jill Stein – Green Party: The physician from Massachusetts has attempted to earn the Green Party’s nomination for president (which she got in 2012 and 2016) and is currently being seen as the front-runner for the nomination and maybe a “problem” for Biden if she manages to walk away with her third Green Party nomination for president.
Cornel West – Independent: The professor, historian, and activist started his campaign by running for the third party, the Green Party. However, wanting to go beyond the “constraints” of the Green Party, he decided to leave and run as an independent.
- “The Dropouts”
These candidates likely made some noise when they first entered the race. But they have dropped out and will not be running for president anymore.
Will Hurd – Republican: The former representative from Texas failed to gain traction and dropped out of the race because he was unable to qualify for the first two GOP debates. He dropped out on October 9th, 2023, and endorsed Nikki Haley as he left.
Perry Johnson – Republican: The businessman failed to put together a successful Republican campaign and frequently polled at 0% and dropped out because of his failure to qualify for any GOP debates.
Francis Suarez – Republican: Suarez is the Mayor of Miami, FL, and tried to put a campaign together but didn’t have enough popularity to qualify for the first GOP debate. He was the first candidate to leave the race and dropped out on August 29, 2023.
Tim Scott – Republican: The Senator from South Carolina dropped out of the race on November 13, 2023, after he failed to make any gains on Trump or any of his Republican opponents in the polls through his campaign.
The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a crazy one, with polls and candidates always changing. It’s essential to stay up to date on what’s going on. The resources that were used for this article can also be used for future reference in the election, and they are The NBC 2024 Presidential Candidate Tracker, FiveThirtyEight’s polls, RealClearPolitics’s polls, The New York Times Presidential Candidate Tracker, along with other credible news sources.
