From the possibility of a convicted felon being the second person ever to win two non-consecutive presidential terms to the first-ever woman of color and Asian American accepting a major political party’s nomination for president after her predecessor dropped out after winning a primary, the US’s 2024 Election has quickly become one of the most notable in recent memory. However, all of the drama of the election season won’t matter in less than two weeks as, on November 5, the United States will not only pick its new president, but all of the members of the House of Representatives and 44 Senators. But, what is expected to happen? Who will win the presidency and what parties will win the House and Senate? Well, the Pioneer dug into polls to determine what citizens should expect from election day.
The Presidential Election
Likely the election filled with the most drama, the US Presidential Election has been a back-and-forth battle between Vice-President Kamala Harris (D) and her running mate, Tim Walz, and former President Donald Trump and his running mate, JD Vance.
So, what do the polls say? It’s a complete toss-up. As of October 24, 538’s election forecast gives Trump a 51% chance to win compared to Harris’ 49% chance. The interesting fact is that, according to 538, this race has become tighter as election day has advanced closer. For example, on September 18, Kamala was given a 64% to win, a lead that has since been cut down by Trump in recent weeks.
On October 20, The Pioneer double-checked 538 by running 100 simulations of 270toWin’s election simulator. Our findings were similar, Kamala has a 52% chance to win. In terms of battleground states, Trump won Arizona 66% of the time, Trump won Georgia 64% of the time, Harris won Michigan with a percentage of 54%, Nevada went to Harris 55% of the time, Trump took North Carolina 44% of the time, Harris took crucial Pennsylvania only 51% of the time, and Wisconsin went to Trump occasionally in 51% of our simulations.
So, the race for the White House is a complete toss-up, there are dozens of realities that allow both Harris and Trump to win. The unfortunate fact is, none of the other races are different.
House of Representatives
The 435 House seats are up for grabs and while 424 seats are fairly safely Democrat or Republican, the 11 battleground states will likely determine if Republicans can control their slim 221-214 lead.
Each battleground seat is tight, really tight. However, which way does 538 have each of them going? On October 22, the prediction was as followed; WA-3: Republican, OR-5: Democrat, CA-22: Republican, CA-45: Democrat, AK: Republican, IA-3: Republican, MI-8: Democrat, MI-7: Republican, NY-19: Democrat, NY-17: Republican, and ME-2: Republican.
So, 538 has Republicans taking 7/11 of battleground seats. However, again, these seats could go either way. At the end of the day, 538 (as of October 24) gives Republicans only a 50% chance to win with 218 to 217 seats. So, again, the House is a true tossup.
The Senate
The Senate is likely the most clearcut race, Democrats currently hold the Senate very tightly with 47 Democrats+3 Independents that caucus with the Dems. to Republicans’ 49 Senators (the remaining independent does not currently caucus with either party). The problem for the Democrats in maintaining this power is that Democrats only have 28 Senators not up for the election while Republicans have 38. This lead has led to, on October 24, 538 giving Republicans an 87% of winning control of the Senate.
According to 270toWin, as of October 23, polling shows that Republicans, even without Senate battleground Ohio (which they are supposed to win anyway), will win the Senate with either 51 seats or 52. However, much like the other races, the Senate election is not a guaranteed win for either side as recent polls have shown that the Senate race in Texas has become incredibly close (Republican incumbent Ted Cruz is projected to only have a 1% lead over Democrat Colin Allred). A win in Texas and Ohio would, as long as Harris wins the election, give the Democrats an advantage in the Senate with 50 seats and Vice-President Tim Walz as the tiebreaker.
WO’s Representative Polls
The election that will affect West Orange is much more of a landslide than any other national race. The race for West Orange’s representative in the House (NJ-10) between McIver (D) and Bucco (R), along with a handful of independents, is a rematch from the special election in September where McIver won handily with 81.2% of the vote. As of October 24, 538 gives McIver a 99% chance of winning along with polling at 70.3%.
The election that will affect NJ’s representation in the Senate is a battle between Kim (D) and Bashaw (R) for the bribery-convicted Menendez’s (D) seat. As of October 24, 538 gives Kim a 98% chance of winning as he also polls at 60.3%.
Conclusion
The polling shows that come January, the United States should be ready for full Democratic control, full Republican control, or even some combination of the two. The only thing that Americans can be sure of is that these races are so unpredictable that only November 5 will tell what will happen in the United States’ future.
